Resilient Demand vs. Volatile Headwinds: Equifax Q1 2026 Consumer Market Pulse

Snapshot: Equifax Consumer Market Pulse - Q1 2026

• Secured consumer credit demand increased +4.9% vs Q1 2025
  • Mortgage demand increased +7.5% vs Q1 2025
  • Mortgage limits (dollar value) increased +6.7 vs Q1 2025
     
• Unsecured consumer credit demand increased +3.6% vs Q1 2025
  • Credit card demand increased +10.4% vs Q1 2025
  • Personal loan demand increased +7.9.% vs Q1 2025
  • Credit card arrears: financial value down nearly 3% vs Q1 2025.

SYDNEY – 6 May 2026 – Released today, the Equifax Consumer Market Pulse - Q1 2026 shows that overall consumer confidence has been impacted by higher petrol prices, the higher cost-of-living and the RBA’s recent interest rates hikes elevating housing market concerns.  

Amid market speculation concerning economic stability, the Equifax Consumer Market Pulse provides some encouraging signs. Q1 2026 data shows a fair degree of momentum behind consumer activity, with this resilience being an important buffer protecting the Australian economy. For example, secured credit demand grew by +4.9% YoY, led by a significant +7.5% surge in mortgage demand; and arrears rates, in general, remained towards the lower end of the range seen in recent years.

Equifax consumer data also provides an important historical perspective. The observed Q1 2026 credit behaviours have parallels to the 2022-2023 period. This earlier period encompassed the aftermath of a global pandemic, a 4.0% cash rate rise in just over a year and a peak inflation rate of 7.8%. The market feared increased credit failure and a “mortgage cliff” during this time. But credit card demand remained steady and, while mortgage arrears rose, they stabilised relatively quickly.

“With global uncertainty, supply chain disruptions, higher consumer borrowing rates and rising fuel prices, it is easy to suggest that we could expect to see a dramatic decrease in credit demand. However, it’s important to recognise that we can draw parallels to conditions consumers experienced in 2022 and 2023. The data demonstrates the resilience of Australia’s credit market, as long as factors such as unemployment remain low,” said Kevin James, Chief Solution Officer at Equifax. 

“The labour market is also a key factor when considering the appetite and ability of consumers to borrow and spend; and in line with the overall resilience theme of the Equifax Consumer Market Pulse the unemployment rate, at 4.3%, is near 50-year lows.” 

Mortgage Growth Fuelled by Upgrades and Refinancing
Equifax Consumer Market Pulse - Q1 2026 data revealed a robust 7.5% YoY increase in mortgage demand, primarily driven by upgrades and refinances rather than new market entrants, which were down ~3.5% YoY. 

“The reduction in new market entrants likely reveals that during a trying period of intense economic headwinds, Australians were focused on managing existing financial obligations and mortgage debt in Q1. For new mortgage accounts, borrowing limits are growing in dollar amount value up +6.7% YoY, revealing that a smaller number of new accounts are driving portfolio dollar value growth.”

“With mortgage lending being often a useful indicator of dwelling price direction, positive growth in mortgage demand could suggest the price cycle is yet to turn down. This outcome would align with previous cycles where dwelling prices remained resilient; historically, the market has maintained a long-term average growth rate of approximately ~6% per annum, even during periods of RBA tightening.”

Arrears softening, but Personal Loan Exposure Divergence Reveals Stress
Equifax Consumer Market Pulse - Q1 2026 data shows that even with new volatility, arrears are currently stable or improving across major portfolios. Mortgage arrears (90+ DPD) show positive trends, with a 3-basis-point reduction in active accounts and a 2.2% decrease in total limits compared to Q1 2025.

The credit card 90+ DPD delinquency rate stood at 0.31% in Q1 2026, reflecting a softening in arrears, with financial value down nearly 3% YoY. This improvement, marked by a 3 basis point reduction in active accounts and a 2.9% decrease in total limits (vs Q1 2025), was significantly driven by a 10% reduction in arrears among the 18-25 age demographic.

“The softening of mortgage and credit card arrears in Q1 showcases Australians’ responsible financial reaction to economic headwinds. Interestingly, the personal loan arrears indicators demonstrated features of exposure divergence - while headline 90+ DPD arrears rates stabilised and the volume of accounts in arrears improved by 14 basis points, the financial value of those personal loans in arrears rose +3.1%, indicating mounting stress on larger balances,” said Kevin James. 

IMAGE 1: Quarterly Demand Movement – Secured vs. Unsecured Credit

Source: Equifax Australia

IMAGE 2: Consumer Credit Applications – By Type (Indexed to Q1 2020)^

Source: Equifax Australia

^The data has been re-indexed from 2020 to account for the recent inclusion of Buy Now Pay Later applications: Re-indexed data to commence in 2020 (previously 2015). Added buy now pay later and auto loan credit enquiries as a separate trendline (previously rolled up into personal loans).

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NOTE TO EDITORS
The Equifax Consumer Market Pulse measures the volume of credit card, personal loan applications, Buy Now Pay Later, mortgages and auto loan applications that go through the Equifax Consumer Credit Bureau by financial services credit providers in Australia. Credit applications represent an intention by consumers to acquire credit and in turn spend; therefore, the index is a lead indicator. This differs to other market measures published by the RBA which measure credit provided by financial institutions (i.e. balances outstanding). Equifax may quote publicly available data and known information from reputable sources (such as, but not limited to, RBA, Consumer Price Index, ABS, CoreLogic) in the Market Pulse to provide greater context on the market conditions surrounding Equifax observed credit trends. 

DISCLAIMER
Purpose of Equifax media releases:
The information in this release does not constitute legal, accounting or other professional financial advice. The information may change, and Equifax does not guarantee its currency or accuracy. To the extent permitted by law, Equifax specifically excludes all liability or responsibility for any loss or damage arising out of reliance on information in this release and the data in this report, including any consequential or indirect loss, loss of profit, loss of revenue or loss of business opportunity.