Inivio prediction: Coalition win with 95 seats, with dominance in all 3 major eastern states
Sydney, Australia, 6th September 2013: Stepping sideways from their usual business of marketing science, Data-driven Marketing (the Marketing Services division of Veda) are predicting a Coalition landslide, based on a unique blend of research and geodemographics. “If we assume Labor and the Greens cosy up in this election, they boost their chances, but it’s still a Liberal win, with dominance in all 3 major eastern states” says GM of Data-driven Marketing, Chris Smith. “If the Greens decide to part ways with Labor then, leaving minor party preferences out of the picture, it’s a Coalition landslide. Either way, we predict Australia will be saying ‘see ya later’ to Kevin Rudd this weekend”.
--- Check the table below this article for a seat-by-seat prediction outcome ---
Nate Silver’s amazingly accurate poll predictions in the 2008 US elections opened the eyes of the public to what clever economists and statisticians have known for a long time – that using the right data in the right way can create incredibly accurate predictions of human behaviour, at an individual or group level.
With the election in just a day away, Data-driven Marketing’s marketing sciences team have created some bold hypotheses in the same vein – but with a bit of a twist.
Drawing together polling results and a wide pool of demographic data, the Data-driven Marketing team have come up with some last minute communications tips for both parties, identifying where the swing seats are, the issues that matter to voters in these seats, and who these swinging voters are.
“We thought it would be both interesting and a bit of fun to look at how our various data elements relate to political preferences and key issues” says Smith, “and whilst we were doing it, we thought – why not, lets add electoral boundaries into the mix and see if we can predict what is going to happen”.
The Data-driven Marketing research asked eligible voters which party they would support on polling day, and what issues they felt were the most significant for an incoming government to address.
The poll received responses from 1200 eligible voters, in a population representative sample across Australia, making it a robust data set to draw some inferences from.
“The first thing we looked at was how preferences lean at a seat level”, says Smith, “both for Liberal and Labor individually, and with Katter/Liberal combined and Labor/Greens combined – likely coalitions should the major parties need to partner to gain power.”
“Assuming Labor and Greens ally together, our results show a Coalition win by a reasonable margin (57% to 43% of seats) as well as dominance in all 3 major eastern seaboard states”.
"However, if we look at just Labor vs. Coalition, leaving minor party preference out of the picture, it's a landslide in favour of the Coalition - 63% of seats, or 95 seats to 55”, said Smith.
There are some seats in which the two major parties are literally neck and neck, with less than 2% dividing preferences. These ‘swing seats’ are Canberra, Blaxland, Cunningham, Eden-Monaro, Parkes, Brisbane, Fisher, Lilley, Moreton, Rankin, Wide Bay, Boothby, Jagajaga, Kooyong, La Trobe, Lalor, Melbourne, Wannon, Curtin, Fremantle, Moore, O'Connor, and Tangney.
The team then applied Data-driven Marketing’s geo-demographic segmentation tool, Landscape, to these seats to identify what mix of Australians made up these politically variable localities.
10 of the 23 swing seats are dominated by the ‘Success Stories’ segment, an affluent urban segment which has a strong Liberal preference and whose election concerns are strongly focused around the economy and immigration issues.
‘Blue Collar families’ and ‘Country Endeavorers’ are the other segments strongly represented in swing seats. Both of these segments have a slight Labor preference, although are in themselves marginal voter populations. Although both groups still show strong interest in the economy as an electioneering issue, they also have a high level of interest in health policy.
The Coalition message, focused around restoring fiscal health, stopping the boats and paid parental leave plays to the concerns of these swing groups. By contrast, although Labor is also focused on trying to assert its economic credentials, a greater emphasis on education policy may be reducing the impact of their campaign to voters who are most easily swayed.
“We’re not Nate Silver, and don’t claim to be able to forecast seat outcomes infallibly” says Smith, “but this does illustrate the power of pulling together different data sources, and using quantitative information to help explain the ‘why and wherefore’ of observed behaviours.”
LNP 95 V ALP 55. Here's what Invio are predicting seat by seat: